AFULE State Office
Suite 45 Level 8 'K' Tower
269 Wickham Street
Fortitude Valley

The March 2001 meeting of the Australian Federated Union of Locomotive Employees, Queensland, was held at the AFULE State Office situated at Suite 45 Level 8 'K' Tower 269 Wickham Street Fortitude Valley on 13 and 14 March 2001, commencing at 09:00 hours.

Mr Greg Smith declared the meeting open at 09:00 hours. Due to the absence to the Vice President, Council appointed Mr K Staib to chair the proceedings.

A minutes' silence was observed in memory of the passing of A.F.U.L.E. members Rhys Walker and Lindsay Sliep.

Hours of Sitting

This is my first report as State Secretary of the A.F.U.L.E., although I have been acting in the position since August 2000.

As Councillors would now be aware, I have been elected to the position unopposed. Councillors are in possession of my letter of resignation from the position of State President of the A.F.U.L.E. which means that it will be the duty of the Divisional Council Meeting to appoint a State President for the duration of the present term which is December 2001.

A F U L E STRUCTURE
Whilst other organisations have changed their structures to meet changes in their industries, the A.F.U.L.E. has basically remained the same for many years. There are numerous reasons why the traditional boundaries of the Divisions have not changed. The main reason seems to be politically motivated, in that, some depots feel that they would no longer be able to monopolise the Councillors positions or some resentment of the neighbouring depot.

It is time to pull down these barriers and recalculate the Divisional boundaries to best meet the changes which have occurred in QR, and for the overall benefit of the A.F.U.L.E. membership. As with any rule change it must be sent to all Branches for comment before a final decision is made by Council.

UNION SERVICE FEE FOR NON-UNION MEMBERS
Every time Unions gain wage increases and conditions, members question as to why these benefits flow on to non-Union members. The general feeling is that non-Union members should not be entitled to these flow ons as they do not contribute financially to the Unions whose resources are used to gain the improvements.

In 1999 as part of the debate surrounding a range of provisions for inclusion into the Industrial Relation Act 1999, the AWU proposed by way of a discussion paper, the inclusion of a user pay system. There has also been a discussion paper on the user pay system commissioned by DETIR and prepared by David Peetz (Griffith University) which has been presented to the Minister. There has been, since 1999, some further activity around the issue of user pay system which has included the adoption of Union encouragement clauses, and the insertion into a few agreements of a provision for a service fee.

The issue of a service fee for non-Union members is a complex one, in that it requires a lot of in depth research and debate by peak Union bodies to weigh up the benefits for individual unions and its members.

Welcome every one to our first council of 2001. First off I would like to congratulate Mr. G. Smith on his election to State Secretary of the most powerful rail Union in QLD. This year as always, will present lots of issues that we must ensure are handled correctly for the good of all our members. The re election of the ALP in QLD and the selection of a new Chief Executive Officer within QR, are two incidents that could have a massive impact on the railways. This Union must ensure we are in at the ground floor with all proposed changes these two occurrences will cause.

Onto a more Council orientated type of report.

CAIRNS
I will start with the Cairns depot, QR despite opposition from the Unions decided a couple of years ago to flood this depot with Drivers. They said they are all Driver relief and everything will be ok, we need them. No Driver from Cairns has been utilized on relief. This fact aside, due to a series of occurrences such as the end of goods trains servicing the tablelands, a third party operator due to start on the Kuranda Line in July and proposed changes to QRX trains, this Depot is seeking some sort of guarantee from QR as to their future. The usual is to pit one Depot against the other and then claim the forthcoming ideas. This is how you get promoted within QR. As the Divisional Councillor for this area I will be asking for assistance to gain a result that is not detrimental to either Depot.

TOWNSVILLE
Townsville is presently in dispute with QR over the accommodation in Cairns. The attitude adopted by QR on this has to be believed, it is very frustrating and makes me feel like we have gone backwards ten years in our relationship with lower Management when it comes to open minded consultation. Another issue that again is affecting all Depots is the continual alteration to agreed Diagram Jobs. This was raised at the RCC meeting on the 6th, a working party is to attempt to rectify this problem. If it can't, maybe the old methods used by unions can.

PRING
Pring depot is as usual handling their problems through the various meetings that they have. It is baffling to say the least as this system appears to work to an acceptable degree for the depot, why are so many problems occurring elsewhere. Could it possibly be the management? The trials on DOO to Townsville on the coal services had no major problems. Other issues in the Train Crew Agreement that QR wish to implement are being worked through using the correct procedures. Consultation with the Unions.

CHARTERS TOWERS
Charters Towers is again feeling the strain of only getting on average one day off a week. This places a big strain on Traincrews personal lives as well as their working lives. Every time we get together a diagram that allows the depot to work to Townsville and unload therefore increasing their shift lengths some one alters them. When you try to find out who, everyone blames everyone else. If the working party can't solve the rostering issues perhaps QR should seek help from external sources. The excessive lay offs caused by the rostering alterations can mean you're way from home for 28 hrs and only worked thirteen or fourteen hours. All time away should be somehow recorded towards shifts lengths. Or at least a percentage of it. We are laying off to provide a return service to QR not for our own benefit.

HUGHENDEN
Hughenden depot is running reasonable smooth due to the good working relationship between the Driver In Charge and local Unions. This goes to show that if people are treated reasonable and asked to assist constructively about their future they usually comply. During a telephone conversation on the 8th the problems with rostering and long layoffs was raised, this depot is asking that we be advised they may ask us very soon to issue seven days notice over this. I will be informed of their decision on Tuesday morning.

CLONCURRY
Cloncurry while suffering the same problems with roster and layoffs etc. have a far greater problem. In excess of twenty-five Trainee Drivers have been appointed to this Depot with all to take up this year. The chronic housing shortage for both singles and families has been raised often, what has happened to the Western Incentive package. I have attended both Trainee Driver information sessions held in Townsville and one of the first questions is how is the housing situation. When told they should be OK, but no guarantees you can hear the discussions. If people have a reasonable house at a reasonable price, it goes a long way towards allowing them to create a life. Do this and QR may be able to keep people in the West for the ten years we are telling them they will be there.

MT ISA
Mt Isa also has a massive shortage of housing and this needs attention, we were told QR were looking at attempting to lease some houses off Q-build, what is happening. This appears to be in the too hard basket. The singles accommodation is also of a very poor standard. Again how can QR hope to retain staff from all grades if the majority of their wage is spent on rent, food and petrol at prices that would give most Southerners a heart attack. The roster inconsistencies are also affecting this depot. We need to get proper answers from QR or issue seven days over rostering problems. Again the excessive layoffs inflicted on the depot create major social and work related problems. To work six hours to Cloncurry etc. then layoff for twelve hours before deferments is placing a strain on families. Again when we rectify the problems they stay fixed for about one month.

In closing thank you again to all those Branch Officials who give up their time and put so much effort into attempting to give all our members the best possible conditions. These people are what makes us the strongest Traincrew Union.

Welcome councillors to the first Divisional Council meeting for the year 2001.

Firstly I would like to congratulate Greg Smith on becoming the new State Secretary of the A.F.U.L.E.

There has been a lot happening since the last meeting, such as a State election with the Labour party being re elected, hopefully that means our jobs might be more secure.

There was also the sudden loss of a Driver in Coppabella Mr. Lindsey Sliep, he will be sadly missed.

BHP miners have been on strike and QR trying to run trains into mines that were on strike, but not succeeding on safety related reasons.

MORANBAH
This depot is now closed, and the men have gone to new depots.

DYSART
The men want to know if and when QR are going to replace the men that have recently left, there are great concerns that Dysart will become another Moranbah. There is concerns over the trials that QR is conducting, with two drivers staying on the loco while the train is being loaded.

COPPABELLA
These drivers were involved in the trains that QR wanted to take to the mines that were on strike, which caused a great deal of stress to the whole community. Also they are still have not got a good diagram up and running.

MACKAY
Mackay members would like a ruling, on when working construction trains in ATP territory can QR extend the 15 km limit.
Also they request that they be relieved on arrival when they get to Rockhampton, no matter what hours they have been on duty.

ROCKHAMPTON
I had great pleasure in presenting a life membership to past president HUGH QUIRK at this branches Christmas party.
They are having problems with the swapping of BLP's, but I understand David Mitchell has had discussions with Greg about this matter.

JILALAN
I have just been told that Casey Douce has just resigned as president, it will take a good man to fill his shoes.
They are still having problems with QR about their diagram, when will QR listen to the right people.
This depot would like to conduct some trials of their own to show certain managers what they are trying to do is wrong.
I will show and explain to council what they would like to trial.

Also when is the new Area Manager going to take up his position, there has been a person acting in this position since the job interviews have been completed. The new TMIO position under the Area Manager, when is this going to be called, or is QR just going to slot one of there own boys into the job.

The Jilalan relief pool is still not being utilized and they want this pool to be trained up.

GENERAL BUSINESS
Welcome gentlemen to our first council of 2001. I have no doubt we will endure another trying year on the Union front. A few issues I would like to touch on in this report are the absence of a fatigue payment in our system, that is when a driver reports fatigue before or during a shift, there is no system in place for payment only the docking of hours and I feel that at this council this must be addressed.

I applaud the efforts of those involved in the Mayne transfer swap debacle and after a great deal of negation a more than satisfactory outcome was achieved for our members involved with our then State President proving yet again to be a very worthy negotiator. Now is the time we must act in producing a new transfer policy so as we are not forced into this uncomfortable position again.

I'm sure all are aware of the Umarlo incident, a coal train's near miss with the Spirit of the Outback and the two Drivers involved being reduced to porters for 6 months on porters pay rate. We are presently in the process of appeal in the way of a submission to have these drivers restored to normal trainmen's duties. For those not aware of the incident this is a huge burden to bear and the repercussions could be enormous. It is far too big a price to pay for a mistake.

I spoke earlier of fatigue and I believe that fatigue management will play a vital role in our future as drivers. As a council we must start the wheels in motion and prepare for this situation, that being discussions and possibility of the formation of a working party to better prepare this Union for the predicament that is starting to gain momentum. I'm led to believe that QR is also proceeding down these lines with fatigue scores of drivers being monitored in certain parts of the state.

Congratulation must go to our new State Secretary Greg Smith. Greg has also been instrumental in his efforts towards salary sacrifice and when this is achieved let there be no doubt that the hard work and the accolades should be directed towards Greg and the A.F.U.L.E.

GLADSTONE
The Gladstone depot is busy at present with record coal haulages and the shortage of drivers doesn't help things. I'm told a submission to have the numbers increased has been put to the General Manager Coal and Mainline Freight.

We have endured problems from local management over such issues as overalls for fuelling and provisioning of locos, the withdrawal of seat covers and hand towels, deferments on job specifics and the improper utilization of shed crew. But hopefully this can be resolved at local level.

A new provisioning shed at Barney Point has been completed, the matter concerning medical certificates being requested before the EMS system has been properly utilized has been sorted out. The 4000 class locos have been fully introduced into our fleet, they are somewhat slower on loaded trains but they are proving to be very comfortable and quiet loco to drive.

BLUFF
Bluff has a dispute over the state of the trackside in the Blackwater system and a dispute notice being sent to General Manager Coal and Mainline Freight. Drivers positions have been called in Bluff but at this stage when and how many is not yet known. A new roster at the beginning of the next cycle with the introduction of permanent mates. Some of the men in Bluff took part in a protest march against BHP shutting down 2 of its mines. This was pleasing to see, as it shows that the A.F.U.L.E. members are there for the support of other unions and the local area.

QR apparently are trying to sell 10 houses in Bluff with the residents moving to other accommodation and I'm told that QR has agreed to provide 12 months free water and in some cases amount up to 500 dollars for re-establishing gardens, it is good to see that the department is showing a little compassion. But on the other hand there are some problems in regards to who has to pay for pest control in QR houses.

EMERALD
There was a matter concerning an Emerald Driver leaving a train during a shift because the remainder of the shift was working into his BLP. The department saw fit to try and discipline this driver but this was abandoned after it was explained that this driver had done everything in his power to prevent this incident and also under the Train Crew Agreement guidelines he is not required to work his BLP's unless by choice.

Emerald is another depot where driver's jobs are to be called; at the moment there is a shortage with 4 relief Drivers coming from Toowoomba. This is also causing problems in the rostering system with men missing diagram jobs. Another concern from the Emerald men is the state of locos being provisioned in out depots in particular Gladstone and Mackay locos. Some of these locos are not being provisioned to a proper standard.

ALPHA and LONGREACH
Both depots seem to be reasonably happy at present with enough work in the way of sleeper and ballast trains and the stock to start shortly. The quarters at Winton seem to be at long last finished and satisfactory to the Longreach men. One problem is the absence of a roadside toilet between Longreach and Winton, apparently the council provided one at Morella but the electric pump that runs the water system has been stolen on several occasions, so I'm asked to approach the department on the possibility of a chemical or other form of toilet. Both depots are extremely happy with the cleanliness of the locos into these depots. There has been a request for safety shoes instead of boots.

Welcome Councillors

The State Elections over and the Beattie Government has been re elected for another term. In spite of the election rorts circulating in the Labour Party, people voted for a stable Government with proven policies which now sees the Coalition Parties all but wiped out in Queensland.

The Beattie Government has given their support to all rail unions in QR, so we can look forward to working with the Minister of Transport on issues that may arise in the future.

Congratulations also go to Greg Smith, who has been elected as our new State Secretary.

ATP
The ATP has finally been commissioned from Rockhampton to Caboolture. QR are now utilising 2800 and 2300 Class Locomotives on the corridor. ATP. trials were carried out over a number of weeks, there have only been a few problems, mainly Encoder failers with the trouble areas being addressed as they occur.

One main area of concern to our members will be when the ATP is isolated in route. The DOO Driver can only work to a maximum of one hour thirty minutes, after that he must be assisted by a qualified person. This situation will have to be monitored by branch officials in all depots, to ensure the conditions of the DOO agreement are not abused.

With QR now utilising 2300 Class Locomotives on some services we have the problem of no onboard toilet facilities as raised in our circular 19/01. There have been discussions on placing portable toilets at designated stations on the corridor. (Theebine, Berajonda). When QR initiates a project to completely rebuild a locomotive such as the 2300, why don't they install toilet facilities as a standard inclusion in the modifications.
I am sure this can be pursued on a health issue for all Traincrew.

Still on Locomotives, Cab repairs are an ongoing concern. Seats and arm rests are still being repaired with Duct tape in Rockhampton.
Not good enough. Why haven't QR a quality Control Officer to check that all defects and repairs are fixed before a Locomotive leaves that designated area. This would save Traincrew continually booking the same repairs week in week out. Drivers have requested a 240 volt power outlet be installed in all Locomotive Cabs.

TRAINCREW DRIVING MOTOR CARS
Recently I had an issue on driving motor cars. Traincrew are being utilised to drive motor cars all around the State. The Train Crew Agreement states in Clause 4.16 Self Driving of Motor Vehicles.

Where the self driving of motor vehicles is at the commencement of a rostered shift, the shift length will not exceed the limitation of hours for the relevant crew configuration.

Where the self driving of motor vehicles is at the end of a rostered shift, the Traincrew will only be required to drive cars when they have not been on duty in excess of eight hours, and are able to arrive at their destination within nine hours of signing on duty.

Traincrew employees will drive a motor vehicle for the purpose of train operations within the confines of the agreed local area provided they are signed off in accordance with the limitation of hours provision contained in the Traincrew Agreement.

This means that Drivers booked on local shifts are not to drive motor cars outside their agreed local area at any time. Drivers are being utilised by QR to drive motor cars to stations in route and foreign Depots conveying relief Traincrew.

Unless these station are within your agreed local area you are not to drive a motor vehicle.

All Drivers who are unsure, check your Local Operating Procedure manual at your Depot, or contact your local Branch official.

IN CAB WATER
We have recently received a new proposal on in cab water supplies. The latest being a ten litre container that attaches to the cab wall, for drinking and washing purposes. This will replace the 600 ml bottles we now receive. So far we haven't seen any of these water bottles at this time, so members have not had the opportunity to pass on comments on these containers. But if QR decide to install these new water bottles, will it be for an efficient or financial reason. Whatever the outcome, Traincrew can kiss the idea of having chilled water in the cab goodbye.

MARYBOROUGH
The provisioning of Locomotives at Maryborough West has become a contentious issue. Facilities were to be provided so Locomotives could be cleaned, watered and sanded in a safe work area. We have been pursuing this matter for nearly two years, and have now given QR 16th March deadline to have all the equipment installed. If this does not occur, we could well be in dispute with QR.

BUNDABERG
The Bundaberg Depot would like QR to announce the Crewing Requirements for the Diesel Tilt Train under construction at Walkers. With the introduction of this service, Depot staffing levels may need to be increased and a training program commenced.

GAYNDAH
The Gayndah Depot is back to full strength with the arrival of the new Driver Robert Harold. I take this opportunity to welcome Robert and his family.

I hope to see all our members with a visit in the near future.

EXPENSES
All Depots have expressed concerns that the travel allowance now paid to Traincrew must be increased. The $10.90 paid does not cover our expenses. This needs the immediate attention of this Union.

Welcome to all Councillors, to the first council for 2001, and congratulations to Greg Smith for attaining the State Secretary position.

This is my first council since 1995, and it's good to be able to have an opportunity to voice the members concern from the No. 5 district.

RESTRUCTURE OF QR
The management restructure of QR was held over until the recent State Elections, it is concerning to me that while attempts were made to console Traincrew, that this was entirely a management restructure, during the presentation to the unions, the Chief Executive bought up the point that the result of this management restructure will be the managed role out of DOO.
Surely this management restructure will eventually change the structure of Traincrew Depots through the managed roll out of DOO.

Management restructure or Traincrew restructure?

AMENITIES
The new amenities is still to be signed off in the meantime we will be utilising Bowen Hills platform and the old BNF Depot. Also Beenleigh Depots new amenities is not open due to problems connecting the sewage. We will be monitoring the situation as this is starting to become a long winded problem.

CAB CONDITIONS CITYTRAIN ROLLINGSTOCK
In the new QR order consultation seems to be a thing of the past, there has been no Cab Committee meeting since November last year.
Citytrain does not have the luxury of a serviceability standard like freight and as such the condition of our cabs are suffering. There is no sign of any maintenance plan to fix problems such as seats, cab to cab communication, heaters, door seals and water leaks, cockroaches destination boards and flat wheels. No one is placed with the responsibility of cleaning the Cabs and no equipment supplied and as a result they are in a mess.

CORINDA SHUTTLE
The Corinda shuttle, is to be replaced by a bus service from the new May timetable, once again no consultation was entered into, however Ray Stafford our Divisional Councillor has asked for a meeting to discuss this issue and we will be keeping the State Office informed, this meeting is due to take place today.

ROBINA
Robina is to receive two extra sets, which gives them more flexibility in the roster, the two extra sets are welcomed by the Robina crews.

PETRIE
Petrie Depot is to be filled with permanent Traincrews for the new May timetable.

NAMBOUR
There are a number of petty issues causing serious concern from Traincrew at Nambour, the only way I can see out of this is to give Traincrew separate amenities and change the reporting structure of Traincrew within Citytrain.

SHORNCLIFFE
This ongoing saga has reached a new level with management defying ministerial advice, one would hope this matter is cleared up, all we are asking is for permanent Depot numbers to be replenished to 16.

INTRODUCTION
Welcome to everyone for the first council of 2001. It's good to see everybody survive the Christmas and New Year celebrations. Hopefully the year 2001 will be a good year for the A.F.U.L.E.

NEW VCS SYSTEM
While attending a Derailment meeting I was introduced to a new VCS system that QR wish to bring in. The reason for the new system is because Traincrew have become accustom to pressing the acknowledgment button when half asleep. Which could result in a serious accident. The new system will be trialed on a 2800, 3900 and hopefully a 2300 class loco's. The new Bi Sensory VCS system will be Random between 25-45 seconds, then a steady light for 10 seconds, a flashing light for 5 seconds, a flashing light and buzzer for another 5 seconds, then if still not acknowledged the brakes are applied. I feel the random period should be lengthened to 25-60 or 70 seconds.

NEW MANAGEMENT RESTRUCTURE
After reading the "QR into the 21st Century" paper I feel a lot of people in management are going to be looking for positions. When these restructures are announced they should be fully revealed instead of just by bits and pieces because it only creates rumours and innuendos. This courses personnel to be under undue stress and worry about there jobs. In one of the "The Challenges for QR". QR have a cheap shot at the unions by mentioning DOO. This council should make it loud and clear that we are not interested in discussing any more DOO. Has instructed by our members with results from the survey.

NEW STATE SECRETARY
I would like to congratulate Greg Smith for being newly appointed State Secretary. I'm sure he will do as good a job as the past secretaries.

DOO IPSWICH AND TOOWOOMBA
All Brisbane Depots are concerned that QR will introduce DOO without any increase in the aggregate allowance. It has been put to QR by this Union that an aggregate increase is a must with the introduction of DOO.

ACACIA RIDGE
Still having problems with the Diesel Shed. Can only do two loco's. With the location of the shed and the road crossing only two loco's can fit in the loco shed road at a time. Drivers are still having trouble getting road tuition. QR should work out a road tuition program for all depots and stick to it. This is the only way this tuition will get done.

FISHERMAN'S ISLAND
I attended the February branch meeting at FMI and the item that was of great concern at the meeting was getting road tuition past Gympie. The concern was with Maryborough depot learning Fisherman Islands. FMI depot will lose between 15 to 18 jobs a week. So to compensate for the lost jobs. FMI wish to pursue road tuition past Gympie as in the Train Crew Agreement. The new quarters at FMI will be finished by about the 14th April. There is also problems with not having proper toilets on all routes North and West.

IPSWICH
Now that the coal trains are stowed at FMI. Ipswich Traincrew have trouble getting home in the limitation of hours. Having a 1600 local shift rostered at FMI should solve this problem. But we all know how QR feels about local shifts. The rostered sign on time has been changed so this hopefully will help. At the present time the coal trains are being trialed with 41 wagons instead of 39. Will be interesting to see the out come of the trial.

Branches from the No. 7 district would like to congratulate Greg Smith on his election to the position of State Secretary. I have discussed, with the branches the options I believe we have in replacing the position of State President.

All branches report a very quiet time over the preceding three months. The effects of the drought and the GST are just starting to hit home. All branches have expressed their opinions on the 1720 upgrade. All would like to see one of the driving stations removed, but have safety and health concerns if unrestricted long end running were to be introduced. If the second console is to remain the seating position has to be investigated due to a size restriction for the person driving from this console. I have seen the 1720 modified for the Kuranda trains, and while it doesn't appear too bad, I have been told that the ride on the loco isn't better than the existing fleet.

Roma and Charleville Traincrew have completed DTC training and I am told it will be operating from April or May. All depots are training some of the Trainee Drivers that are to take up at Goondiwindi and the process of filling the Tutor Driver position at Goondiwindi is continuing. Some of the Tutor Drivers throughout the district were approached about new reporting responsibilities and duties. They were left to advise the other Tutors as to these new tasks. I have asked that a meeting/workshop be held so all Tutors can discuss these changes. Before the restructure I was told that Metropolitan and Regional Services had someone reviewing the Tutor Driver position and responsibilities. It was mentioned that there was the possibility of Tutor Drivers being able to return to the position of Driver within their depot. I would like to suggest that we should be involved, as a Union, if this is to occur. We also need to discuss the calling of position of Driver Relief at depots. Most Locomotive Driver positions are being called with relief conditions. We need to discuss with QR how long these people are to remain in relief pools. Traincrew have a hard time managing personal and family problems and by sending people on relief this may further deteriorate family units.

Bill Malcom, a former State Vice President of this Union, previously raised the topic of corporate private health cover. Last Divisional Council it was mentioned again. I have had telephone conversations with two of Australia's largest private health funds and I have asked that they forward to this Union details so we can consider this for our members. During the November 2000 Divisional Council Meeting I mentioned the QR employee management system. Since then there have been several incidents where I believe we should seek to have the system altered or enter into negotiations to develop a new policy. Circular 20/01 brings home an important point that before entering into salary sacrificing, a member should seek financial advice. The same applies for changes that have occurred with Q Super recently.

A further review is to be held of the Toowoomba Marshalling Yard. This follows a previous review which wasn't implemented due to timetable alterations. Unfortunately the review is to occur when there is a down-turn in traffic. The old rumour file has Grainco only having 6 to 8 super depots where they will load trains.

What effect this would have on train services and Traincrew numbers is uncertain. Toowoomba branch would like to know if the heavy rail that is ready to be laid from Meandarra to Glenmorgan is to be installed.

To conclude I would like to comment on two items. Firstly the QR restructure. I hope that this will not see attacks on Traincrew conditions and numbers. As a Union we have an obligation to secure employment and conditions for our members. Secondly there is the recent State Election. Even the electorate I live in has returned to Labour. The first time in nine years, but the government will have to work to retain the faith of the people or it could just as quickly change the other way.